Notes

Be Careful Interpreting Covid-19 Rapid Home Test Results

Now that Covid-19 rapid home tests are widely available, it is important to consider how to interpret their results. In particular, I’m going to address two common misconceptions. To keep things grounded, let’s use some actual data. We’ll assume a false positive rate of 1% and a false negative rate of 35%. These numbers are…

Keep reading

Fun with Voting in Cambridge, MA

My city of Cambridge, MA is one of a few municipalities which employs ranked choice voting for City Council elections. Unlike most cities, the Mayor is chosen by the City Council and is largely a ceremonial position. Most real power resides with the City Manager, who is appointed for an indefinite term by the City…

Keep reading

The Truth about Stock Prices: 12 Myths

No-fee trading has invited a huge influx of people new to trading. In this article, I discuss the basics of “price formation,” the mechanism by which stock prices are determined. This is a very gentle introduction to market microstructure, and hopefully will be of some small help to new traders who wish to better…

Keep reading

Two-Envelope Problems

In this piece we play with two incredibly counterintuitive puzzles involving a pair of envelopes which contain unknown amounts of money. First we describe a famous fallacy when it is known that one envelope contains double the money in the other. Then we discuss an actual mechanism (probably first discovered by Thomas Cover…

Keep reading

Differential Entropy

A discussion of some of the subtleties of differential entropy. This also contains a review of discrete entropy, various entropy-related information quantities such as mutual information, and a listing of various axiomatic formulations.

Keep reading

Cardinality

A compilation of useful results involving cardinal numbers (small ones, not huge ones) and arithmetic, along with the cardinalities of certain useful sets. There’s also a small section on bases of infinite-dimensional vector spaces. Proofs and justifications for many of the results are included in an appendix.

Keep reading

Writings and Ravings